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一篇文章 from CNNMoney:
In the last 200 years we've essentially doubled the average life expectancy for people in developed countries, and we continue to extend it at faster and faster rates thanks to better medical technologies as well as technologies that make human life better. At some point -- and that point is coming soon, Kurzweil said -- we will cross a threshold where every year that goes by we will add a year to the average lifespan.
"This will go into high gear within 10 or 20 years from now, in probably less than 15 we will be reaching that tipping point where we add more time than has gone by because of scientific progress," Kurzweil said. "Somewhere between 10 and 20 years, there is going to be tremendous transformation of health and medicine."
Of course, extending the average lifespan isn't a hedge against all death. (In fact, where resource scarcity is concerned, it's a recipe for increased misery and death.) But where the kind of immortality Itskov is talking about -- the digital kind, where the brain is either kept alive in a robotic surrogate or uploaded to silicon -- he points to the relatively huge breakthroughs in the realms of neuroscience and brain machine interfaces that have emerged over the last decade. Prosthetic limbs that respond to brain signals remained the stuff of science fiction a decade ago, yet at Global Futures 2045 the audience saw a working mind-controlled prosthesis in action. Likewise, what sounds absolutely absurd in 2013 might seem a lot more reasonable by 2023 and even commonplace by 2033.
Itskov believes a thriving immortality industry could be well underway by then, ensuring that the end of one's biological life doesn't necessarily spell the end of one's conscious life. And it will become ubiquitous; immortality won't be a privilege only the wealthy can afford, he says. Kurzweil points to the cell phone. In 10 years technologies tend to become 1,000 times less expensive, he said. Everyone has a cell phone now, and while it's true that at the dawn of the cell phone era only the well-heeled owned them, the technology at that point was cumbersome, limited in function, and didn't work very well.
"Only the rich have these technologies when they don't work," Kurzweil quipped. By the time life extension and "immortality" technologies are mature enough to be mainstream, the cost will have come down enough to place it within the reach of millions.
In the last 200 years we've essentially doubled the average life expectancy for people in developed countries, and we continue to extend it at faster and faster rates thanks to better medical technologies as well as technologies that make human life better. At some point -- and that point is coming soon, Kurzweil said -- we will cross a threshold where every year that goes by we will add a year to the average lifespan.
"This will go into high gear within 10 or 20 years from now, in probably less than 15 we will be reaching that tipping point where we add more time than has gone by because of scientific progress," Kurzweil said. "Somewhere between 10 and 20 years, there is going to be tremendous transformation of health and medicine."
Of course, extending the average lifespan isn't a hedge against all death. (In fact, where resource scarcity is concerned, it's a recipe for increased misery and death.) But where the kind of immortality Itskov is talking about -- the digital kind, where the brain is either kept alive in a robotic surrogate or uploaded to silicon -- he points to the relatively huge breakthroughs in the realms of neuroscience and brain machine interfaces that have emerged over the last decade. Prosthetic limbs that respond to brain signals remained the stuff of science fiction a decade ago, yet at Global Futures 2045 the audience saw a working mind-controlled prosthesis in action. Likewise, what sounds absolutely absurd in 2013 might seem a lot more reasonable by 2023 and even commonplace by 2033.
Itskov believes a thriving immortality industry could be well underway by then, ensuring that the end of one's biological life doesn't necessarily spell the end of one's conscious life. And it will become ubiquitous; immortality won't be a privilege only the wealthy can afford, he says. Kurzweil points to the cell phone. In 10 years technologies tend to become 1,000 times less expensive, he said. Everyone has a cell phone now, and while it's true that at the dawn of the cell phone era only the well-heeled owned them, the technology at that point was cumbersome, limited in function, and didn't work very well.
"Only the rich have these technologies when they don't work," Kurzweil quipped. By the time life extension and "immortality" technologies are mature enough to be mainstream, the cost will have come down enough to place it within the reach of millions.
5楼2013-11-18 11:56收起回复
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