ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 060000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY NEOGURI 1408 (1408) INITIAL TIME 060000 UTC
00HR 17.8N 133.2E 945HPA 48M/S
30KTS WINDS 400KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
400KM SOUTHWEST
350KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 130KM NORTHEAST
150KM SOUTHEAST
140KM SOUTHWEST
120KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 60KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
70KM SOUTHWEST
60KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 25KM/H
P+12HR 19.4N 130.3E 940HPA 50M/S
P+24HR 21.2N 127.9E 935HPA 52M/S
P+36HR 23.4N 126.8E 925HPA 58M/S
P+48HR 26.0N 126.4E 930HPA 55M/S
P+60HR 28.9N 126.6E 945HPA 48M/S
P+72HR 31.7N 127.6E 972HPA 35M/S
P+96HR 34.7N 133.1E 985HPA 25M/S
P+120HR 36.2N 140.9E 995HPA 16M/S=

** WTPQ20 RJTD 060000 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1408 NEOGURI (1408)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 18.0N 133.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 20.9N 128.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 080000UTC 24.8N 126.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 090000UTC 29.7N 127.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =

WTPQ30 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 1408 NEOGURI (1408)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 060000 UTC IS GOOD.
TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

NAME: STY NEOGURI (1408)
TIME: 0706/06UTC
PSTN: 18.5N 131.4E
MXWD: 95KT
PRES: 923HPA
DVRK: T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24HRS
RMKS:
WMG EYE WITH MG RING (SURR BY LG) RESULTS IN DT=5.0. MET=6.5 AND PT=6.0. DBO PT.
CNVCTN MEASUREMENT IS NOT CONSIDERED RELIABLE.
INTENSITY ASSESSED AT 95KT BASED ON DVORAK.
PSTN BASED ON EYE FEATURE SHOWN IN EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MW STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED. EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT AND REGULAR.

TPPN10 PGTW 061210
A. TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI)
B. 06/1132Z
C. 18.9N
D. 130.3E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/6.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG (+0.5
ADJUSTMENT FOR LG) YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. PT WAS 5.5; MET WAS 6.0.
DBO PT AS EYE IS VERY WELL-DEVELOPED AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION
OF THE STORM IS GOOD, EVEN THOUGH COLDEST AREAS OF CONVECTION
ARE SHEARED ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/0615Z 18.3N 131.6E SSMI
06/0739Z 18.4N 131.3E TRMM

冲绳雨云实况

又一梅干菜

，，，