标题：China International Marine Containers2015 results missed; watch its land value
发布日期：2016-03-30 14:58:51
内容： Results missed expectations In 2015, China International Marine Containers’ (CIMC) revenuefell 16.2% YoY to Rmb58.69bn and net profit declined 20.3%YoY to Rmb1.97bn, missing expectations. Its gross margin rose1.9ppt YoY to 18.1%, while net profit margin slipped 0.2ppt.CIMC’s expense ratio expanded. Operating cash flow turnednegative and recorded a YoY drop of Rmb10bn. Trends to watch Cautiously optimistic on the operation of its mainbusiness in 2016. We expect CIMC’s container business tostabilize in 2016, and its road transportation vehicle business tomaintain steady. Maritime engineering and energy equipmentmay still face heavy earnings pressure. The company relocatedits plants in 2014 and the related compensation should enhanceits net profit by Rmb500~600mn. Watch CIMC’s land value. CIMC’s HQ is located in Shekou andthe company owns ~520,000sqm of industrial land in Qianhai.The construction of the GD-HK-Macau FTZ and the developmentof land in Qianhai should raise the value of its land. We estimatethe value of the land that may transform from industrial tocommercial use at >Rmb56bn and calculate its attributable valueat Rmb22.4bn, which is 61% of CIMC’s total market cap. Earnings forecast Considering the downside surprise to earnings, we cut ourestimate for 2016e EPS by 38.5% to Rmb0.72 andintroduce our 2017e forecast at Rmb0.79. Valuation and recommendation CIMC-A is trading at 21.9x/19.8x 2016/17e P/E, while CIMC-H istrading at 14.8x/13.4x P/E. Considering the downside surprise toearnings, we cut TP for CIMC-A/H by 30.8% toRmb18/HK$13.5, implying 25x/15x 2016e P/E. Maintain BUY. Risks Sharp fluctuations in downstream demand.
发布日期：2016-03-30 14:58:51
内容： Results missed expectations In 2015, China International Marine Containers’ (CIMC) revenuefell 16.2% YoY to Rmb58.69bn and net profit declined 20.3%YoY to Rmb1.97bn, missing expectations. Its gross margin rose1.9ppt YoY to 18.1%, while net profit margin slipped 0.2ppt.CIMC’s expense ratio expanded. Operating cash flow turnednegative and recorded a YoY drop of Rmb10bn. Trends to watch Cautiously optimistic on the operation of its mainbusiness in 2016. We expect CIMC’s container business tostabilize in 2016, and its road transportation vehicle business tomaintain steady. Maritime engineering and energy equipmentmay still face heavy earnings pressure. The company relocatedits plants in 2014 and the related compensation should enhanceits net profit by Rmb500~600mn. Watch CIMC’s land value. CIMC’s HQ is located in Shekou andthe company owns ~520,000sqm of industrial land in Qianhai.The construction of the GD-HK-Macau FTZ and the developmentof land in Qianhai should raise the value of its land. We estimatethe value of the land that may transform from industrial tocommercial use at >Rmb56bn and calculate its attributable valueat Rmb22.4bn, which is 61% of CIMC’s total market cap. Earnings forecast Considering the downside surprise to earnings, we cut ourestimate for 2016e EPS by 38.5% to Rmb0.72 andintroduce our 2017e forecast at Rmb0.79. Valuation and recommendation CIMC-A is trading at 21.9x/19.8x 2016/17e P/E, while CIMC-H istrading at 14.8x/13.4x P/E. Considering the downside surprise toearnings, we cut TP for CIMC-A/H by 30.8% toRmb18/HK$13.5, implying 25x/15x 2016e P/E. Maintain BUY. Risks Sharp fluctuations in downstream demand.
