印度选举解密之选票与包票齐飞

Every election season, the rain of the freebies begins. The real monsoon may fail but this monsoon never does. The people are suddenly swamped by a flood of promises. Suddenly, political parties of all ideologies remember the poor aam aadmi whose needs and aspirations must be met urgently.
每到选举季，免费送的东西多得就像下雨一样，可以说是另类的雨季。印度的季风雨有些年份可能来得不及时，可这种选举送东西的雨季却从来没有误时过。选举期间，突然间老百姓就被淹没在各种许诺的洪流中。也是在突然间，所有参选政党，不管什么意识形态，都想起了老百姓，他们有需求，有愿望，必须马上给与满足。

Whether it’s women, youth, Scheduled Castes/Scheduled Tribes or minorities, slum dwellers or residents of unauthorised colonies, they all become important. Their needs and desires are rediscovered. The promises are wide-ranging — free power and water, cheap foodgrain, televisions, washing machines, pressure cookers, farm loans, school uniforms and books and, to keep pace with the 21st century, laptops and smartphones.
管它是老婆娘，小年轻，表列种姓／表列部族，或者少数民族，还是棚户区居民或者占地违建者。所有人都很值钱。他们的需求和愿望都被挖掘出来。一时间，各种包票满天飞——除了免费水电，便宜谷粮，送电视，送洗衣机，送高压锅，给农业贷款，免费校服和书本这些老套，现在还为二十一世纪的新一辈准备了笔记本电脑和智能手机。

这些承诺包括：各种补贴，降价，预留照顾名额的扩大，设立新的福利计划等等。执政党急于推出这些承诺是因为怕以后会受到选举行为规则的约束。

看起来他们并不在乎推出那些民粹主义的福利计划对本邦的经济有什么损害。知识分子和经济学家开始争论坏经济和好政治哪个占上风。最后的判决当然得看选民。

Promises of the second kind are the ones announced through the manifesto, released before or after the elections have been announced.
第二种承诺是通过竞选宣言的形式发布的，时间在竞选宣布开始前后。

These did not attract the model code of conduct — till recently. The Rs 2 kilo rice, free TVs, laptops, bicycles etc have all happened through this device.
直到最近， 选举行为规则都管不了这些承诺行为。什么一公斤2卢比的大米，免费电视机，笔记本电脑，自行车之类的许诺都是通过这种形式发布的。

理想情况下，政党在选举委员会公布选举投票日程后就要立即公布竞选大纲。但是各党总是拖到很晚，这样有后发优势，可以提出压倒对手的承诺。一旦初步的竞选大纲发布，经接着就是激烈的关于这些承诺的合法性和正当性的讨论。没人讨论这些承诺也没有可行性。而此时选举委员会就会收到雪片般的投诉，要求宣布这些承诺非法。

The fact is that manifestoes are perfectly legal, even if their promises are unrealistic and irresponsible. The EC had no power to question these.
然而，事实是这些竞选大纲完全合法，哪怕他们承诺得非常不现实，不负责任。选举委员会无权质疑它们。

The matter had gone to the Supreme Court which also found itself faced with a great dilemma. In its judgement of July 5, 2013, it accepted that the manifesto promises cannot be construed as “corrupt practices” under the Representation of the People Act though they do “influence” the people and “shake the roots of free and fair elections”. It directed the EC to frame guidelines with regard to the content of manifestoes in consultation with all the recognised political parties.
要解决问题得去找印度最高法院。可最高法院有发现自己处理这种问题也很棘手。在2013年6月5日的判决中，它承认，根据国家代表法，竞选大纲里的许诺不构成腐败行为，尽管这些许诺的确影响了人民，并且动摇了自由和公平的选举的根基。它指定选举委员会在和所有合法政党协商一致的基础上，制定出指导原则。

In their meeting with the EC, most political parties, as expected, vehemently opposed any regulation, arguing that, in a democracy, it is their “right and duty” towards voters to make such offers and promises through the manifestoes.
不出所料，和选举委员会开会讨论的大多数政党激烈反对制定任何这方面的规定，他们说通过竞选大纲向选民 赠送或承诺赠送礼物 是他们是“权利和义务”。

Agreeing with this in principle, the EC, however, mentioned its “undesirable impact”. In deference to the SC directions, the EC issued guidelines for political parties to state the rationale for the promises in the manifestoes and the ways and means to meet the financial requirement for them. These guidelines were added to the model code of conduct as Part VIII.
选举委员会原则同意这种说法，但是又指出这种做法的确有“不良影响”。选举委员会没有按照最高法院的指示办事，它签发了新的指导原则，要求各政党对于竞选大纲中的各种承诺以及满足实现这些承诺所需财务条件的途径和手段进行合理化调整。这些新的指导原则后来成为选举行为规则的第八项。

On August 23, 2016, the AIADMK (lit. All India Anna Dravidian Progress Federation 全印安纳德拉维达进步联盟 ) was “censured” for not giving a rationale and ways and means to meet financial requirements for a whole range of poll promises in its manifesto for the Tamil Nadu assembly election in 2016. This was held a violation of the guidelines on election manifestoes contained in Part VIII of the model code of conduct.
在2016年8月23日泰米尔纳德邦议会选举中， 全印安纳德拉维达进步联盟因为没有对竞选大纲中的承诺进行合理安排受到谴责。它被认定违反了选举行为规则第八项而担责的。
On the same day, the DMK was also held guilty of not giving the rationale for the promises and ways and means to meet the financial requirements, though the party provided it to the EC subsequently in reply to its notice. It was “advised” to be careful in future.
同日，它的对手德拉维达进步联盟党也因为同样的罪名被认定犯罪，虽然它在给选举委员会的通知的回复中做了修正。它受到警告以后小心点。

The manifesto being a perfectly legal and legitimate democratic instrument, if the promises are unrealistic or absurd, it is more important for the rival parties to expose the deceit.
竞选大纲作为一个完全合规合法的民主工具，如果其中充斥的承诺脱离实际或者荒唐可笑，那么对于竞争对手来说，更为要紧的就是要揭露骗局。

Even if the common voters do not understand that the promises are un-implementable, they do remember what promises were made at the last election and have not been fulfilled. Voters are now seen to be constantly rewarding good governance and punishing non-delivery.
即使普通选民看不出来承诺是没法实现的，但人心都有数，上次选举没有兑现的承诺他们都记得。选民现在看来一直在奖励政绩好的，惩罚说话不算数的。