云卷眼

原来阿三也有快速成像仪/机动观测（我们不知具体是何
）

填眼噜

这个定位也太偏了吧
sst变


低了点 风切也没有那么夸张

发展时间不多了

IO, 02, 2022051006, , BEST, 0, 149N, 823E, 65, 977, TY,

This is a dangerous system. Damaging winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, rough seas, mudslides, and flash flooding are all possible risks.
Asani is located 987 km south-southwest of Kolkata, India, and has moved west-northwestward at 6 km/h (3 knots) over the past 6 hours.
Asani will gradually weaken and turn to an increasingly poleward track over the 36 hours, approaching the Indian coast between gudivada and Visakhapatnam.
Although surface waters will remain warm, a sharp drop in ocean heat content along-track will combine with drier off-shore flow and increasing wind shear to deteriorate the system before it reaches Bangladesh, leaving a weak low level vortex drifting in the northern bob.
Despite its dissipation over water however, Asani will have managed to lock in the southwest monsoon over the bob for the season. Model guidance performed remarkably in predicting the formation of Asani and Karim from nearly 10 days out, especially GFS.
Over the past 3 days the track guidance has shifted towards a more westward track showing a less emphatic recurvature towards the northern bob.
Now the ECMWF ensemble is showing a bifurcated track, with some members going ashore over coastal India. The ensemble mean and deterministic tracker still turn the storm poleward, however.
The JTWC forecast stays to the right of consensus favoring the more skillful models. Although the intensity guidance did not quite capture the recent surge up to typhoon strength, it has been consistent and reflected the trends accurately and the deviation amongst the various members is considerably less than average.
The JTWC intensity forecast stays along the multi-model ensemble mean.
Maximum significant wave height is 7 meters (23 feet).

北印度洋热带气旋公报
预报：刘达 签发：高拴柱 2022 年 05 月 10 日 18 时
强气旋风暴“阿萨尼”向西北方向移动
孟加拉湾强气旋风暴“阿萨尼”（ASANI）的中心今天14时（10日，北京时，下同）位于印度拉贾蒙德里东南方向约260公里的孟加拉湾西部海面上，就是北纬15.2度、东经83.4度，中心附近最大风力有10级（28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级），中心最低气压为982百帕。
预计，“阿萨尼”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西北方向移动，逐渐向印度东海岸中部靠近，明天白天沿印度东部近海或擦过印度东部沿海逐渐转向东北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2022年05月10日13时30分）
图2 孟加拉湾强气旋风暴“阿萨尼”未来72小时路径概率预报图

TPIO10 PGTW 100900
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (ASANI)
B. 10/0815Z
C. 14.66N
D. 82.08E
E. FIVE/GOES-IO
F. T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .75 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
AMARAL

TPIO10 PGTW 101200
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (ASANI)
B. 10/1115Z
C. 14.91N
D. 81.79E
E. FIVE/GOES-IO
F. T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .75 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
AMARAL